Selasa, 13 Maret 2012

The Changing Futures for S&P 500 Earnings

S&P Q2, 2012 Operating Earnings per Share Estimates, April 18, 2011 through 8 March 2012 The current edition of Standard and Poor's S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates spreadsheet features a pretty remarkable chart, showing how the future expectations for the index' operating earnings per share for the second quarter of 2012 has changed from 18 April 2011 through 8 March 2012.



In the chart, we can see that the future for expected earnings in 2012-Q2 isn't as bright as it used to be, as the forecast future operating earnings per share for the S&P 500 is more than $2.00 per share less than it was when it peaked just seven months ago!



What a difference that seven months can make!



But those are operating earnings per share - what about actual (or "As Reported") earnings per share? The sum of all the actual earnings that the 500 companies that make up the S&P 500 index will collectively record in their financial statements, divided by their collective number of shares outstanding?



Here, we've been periodically sampling the data from S&P's Earnings and Estimates spreadsheet to create the following chart showing the expected future for S&P 500 earnings per share at various snapshots in time, from 2009-Q1 through 2013-Q4.



Snapshots of the Expected Future For the S&P 500's Trailing Year Earnings per Share, 2009Q1 Through 2013Q4

In this chart, we can see that the future for the S&P 500's earnings per share in 2012 really lost steam between June and October 2011, closely matching what S&P has recorded it its chart showing the expected future for operating earnings per share.



We'll see just how closely the future for earnings per share plays out as compared to what S&P predicts!



Standard and Poor. S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates. [Excel Spreadsheet]. 8 March 2012.

Senin, 12 Maret 2012

Black Peoples' Christmas?

It's been a while since I've written specifically about money. However with "Black Peoples' Christmas" season upon us, I thought it was finally time to follow up on Part One of "A Financial Plan for Black America" by posting several ways you (anybody really) can use their tax return to improve their financial situation for once and forever.

I heard a friend of mine call getting a large tax check the term "Black Peoples' Christmas" and the term never left me. I'm not trying to be offensive, but you have to admit it makes a catchier blog title than "blah, blah, blah... what to do with your tax return...blah, blah, blah." I'll leave that to the people at Motley Fool or CNBC or somebody. I like my title much better. Plus, that's part of how this social media/blogging thing works. You have to grab folks' eyes.


Anyway...back to my point...here are some things you can do with the money you get back that have nothing to do with flat screen televisions...

1. Save it. Just because you have it, doesn't mean you have to spend it. Not now. Maybe not ever. One thing to consider is setting all or part of it aside for a rainy day, a college fund, an emergency fund equal to 3-6 months of your expenses or whatever good use you've had a hard time working into your regular budget.

2. Pay down debt. If you have high interest rate credit accounts, use this as a time to pay down the debts by paying well beyond the minimum payment or erasing it altogether. By now you know that most amortization schedules are designed to enrich your creditor. If you're paying the minimum on a high interest rate credit card, you might never pay it off fully. They hide that in the small print. Don't believe me? Play around with a good loan calculator. You'll see that making minimum payments on fairly small amounts can have you paying three times the amount of the principal for decades. Just going a little bit about the minimum can cut years off your repayment plan.

3. Invest in repairing your credit. I talk a lot about how having a better credit score can do so much to improve your overall financial situation. You can borrow at much lower rates, purchase a home (perhaps for the first time!) and save tens of thousands of dollars over the course of just a few years just from having a better credit score. It might cost a little bit, but it's well worth every penny.

4. Play. There's nothing wrong with playing. However, why not set aside a small amount and plan it out in advance? For example, think about using 10% for just anything you want to do and don't put much discipline behind it. You'll get the thrill of doing something unplanned for yourself, but also the freedom of knowing you were wise with the 90% of it. That should bring a smile to your face.

5. Donate. Is there a cause close to your heart that could use a timely gift of your support? Do you know a family that could use some help? Even a basket of groceries could mean everything to a family living close to the line. Perhaps even be a blessing to your church? Nothing given with a good heart is ever wasted. Your sowing always comes back to you in multiples. Think about whether this is a good time to do a little something for someone else. You can make a small wave that ripples throughout eternity.

6. Complete a home improvement project or service your car. Either of these has lasting benefits. I always say that cars give you trouble at the wrong time ALWAYS! Here's a chance to get ahead of your most trusted family member, your vehicle. Tune it up. Change the oil. Get some new tires or get the brakes done. You know you'll have to do them all anyway and it's better than waiting until you're on the side of the road calling AAA to realize it. You can also do something to your home to increase its value and comfort. Paint. Insulate. Do that landscaping project you've been putting off. You'll be able to enjoy your refund for years and years to come.

7. Start a Business. Perhaps I've saved the best for last?! What's a better use of unexpected funds than investing them into something that will generate money in multiples for months, years or even decades? Again, you don't have to spend money just because you have it. Work on your business plan and then come back to it knowing you've got the seed money you need. This might be just the right time for you to do something special.

(By the way, getting a large refund IS NOT A GOOD THING!!! It means you've allowed the government to borrow your money interest-free over the course of the year. The goal should be to shrink your returns and save more money during the year.)

What else can you do with a tax refund check? USA Today says the average refund is about $3000. That's more than a little bit! Shoot me some ideas!! Be blessed!

Please leave me your comments so I know how to serve you better!! If this was helpful, forward it to a friend. Talk to you soon! Please subscribe and visit me on my Live BIG! Die Empty. Facebook page!!


"That doesn't work for me."

I like it when people are strong and confident enough to tell people where they stand...what they need and prefer out of life. I love it! Of course, there's always a way to say everything, but I won't chase that rabbit right now...

The point to this post is how you can be so forthright in telling others around you what "works" or doesn't work for you, but take so little time to look at your own life and results to have the same conversation with yourself. I do it from time to time whenever I'm feeling like I'm not being as productive as I want to be. I literally pull out a sheet of paper and review what works and what doesn't. It's a reminder to leave unproductive habits (patterns of behavior) in the past and embrace productive ones.


That's a horribly over-exposed picture, but I'm sure you can tell that's my list. As I launch into the second half of my day, I needed a refresher and, by now, you know how much I believe in writing things down. I also need to remember to smile! Be blessed!

Please leave me your comments so I know how to serve you better!! If this was helpful, forward it to a friend. Talk to you soon! Please subscribe and visit me on my Live BIG! Die Empty. Facebook page!!


Teens Absent from Job Gains

It's happened again! In a month that saw job gains for all other age groups, American teens saw their numbers in the U.S. workforce decline. Again.



Change in Number of Employed by Age Group Since Total Employment Peak Reached in November 2007

Here, we see that the number of employed teens has fallen by 18,000 from January 2012 to February 2012, while the number of young adults increased by 60,000 and the number of Americans with jobs Age 25 or older increased by 386,000.



Compared to November 2007, when the level of total employment peaked in the U.S. ahead of the most recent recession, there are 1,556,000 fewer teens counted among the employed as of February 2012. For all practical purposes, there has been no meaningful in the job market for U.S. teens since that recession ended in June 2009.



Or perhaps more significantly, there has been no meaningful improvement in the employment situation for American teens since January 2010, some six months after the most recent increase in the U.S. federal minimum wage. (Six months is the typical period of time we've observed it takes employers to fully adjust to a change in the minimum wage.)



It's pretty interesting that this phenomenon keeps happening - especially now two months in a row with job reports that are being trumpeted as "good news".



It's not like President Obama doesn't know about the problem. Like his plans for economic stimulus or health care, he just doesn't care enough to follow through to make sure his plans help get Americans back to work.

Jumat, 09 Maret 2012

Beer Taxes By State

How much tax will you pay on a can of beer?



The answer is: it depends. Specifically, it depends upon which U.S. state you might be in when you buy that 12-ounce container of 4.7% alcohol-by-volume beer that you'll be taking "off-premise" to consume. The good news is that the Tax Foundation has mapped it all out for you!



Tax Foundation: State Beer Excise Tax Rates

As we can see, both Alabama and Georgia are by far the most expensive places in the U.S. to buy and consume a beer "off-premise". Which perhaps explains why these two states stand out so much among their neighboring states when annual beer consumption is mapped out for each state (HT: Sloshspot):



Sloshdot: Beer Consumption per State, 2009

Looking over the map, it appears that state excise taxes for beer have quite a bit to do with how much beer is consumed within the states!

Kamis, 08 Maret 2012

Man on Fire.

For a lot of you, the only thing separating you from your vision is what the old folks call a "made up mind." You are still "okay" with the possibility of your dream not coming to pass. You haven't yet decided that you will see your vision happen NO MATTER WHAT IT TAKES!

Don't fool yourself or over-spiritualize this by arguing that it's all in "God's hands" or up to "the universe" to make it happen. Once he got a vision, do you think Abraham wasn't totally consumed with it? Do you think Paul waivered? NOPE! Neither should you! Solomon said "Whatever your hand finds to do, do it with all your might..."


One of my favorite Denzel Washington movies is "Man on Fire" for this very reason. His character, Creasy, is a former assassin hired to protect a family (a little girl) in Mexico City. He swears vengeance on those who committed an unspeakable act against the family he was hired to protect. And when I mean he aims to get his vengeance, that's exactly what I mean! He is determined, focused and relentless! He is on fire!

If you're doing what you've said God told you to do, you should look like the craziest, most obsessed and driven person your friends and family know! Everyone around you should know YOU WILL NEVER QUIT until you've seen what God showed you manifest!

Your thoughts? Are you on fire for something? For someone?








Mark Anthony McCray helps people live on PURPOSE, achieve higher PERFORMANCE and experience true PROSPERITY. Be sure to subscribe to this blog so you don't miss a thing and forward this to a friend if you found it helpful. All material © Copyright, Mark Anthony McCray unless otherwise noted!

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Brain Trust

Mapping the Brain - NIH

Once upon a time, we were referred to as the "brain trust over at Political Calculations". From that moment on, we've always referred to ourselves as "we", not because we have some royal delusions of adequacy, but because we recognized that it was true. Political Calculations is a genuinely collaborative effort involving some of most intelligent and insightful people alive today, whose various contributions to the posts that appear here and elsewhere around the Internet ought to be acknowledged.



A lot of them are people who simply blogged about problems they solved in their everyday lives. Some of them are our regular readers, who asked some good questions that we couldn't resist answering. Others are among the top professionals in their fields. They make us possible!



The best part? Many of them have absolutely no idea who we are! And that's the way we like it, but if you must know more about us, you might start with our online profile, because it's all true....



Now, that's us, but what about you? What if you had your own brain trust, where you knew that everyone in it was truly one of the top people in their lines of work? People who have devoted years to what they do, and because they have, could answer almost any question you might ask them. Wouldn't that be pretty cool?



Brain Trust - Source: Random House

It so happens that Garth Sundem, for many practical purposes, "one of us", has assembled his own brain trust and asked them almost anything!



The results of that effort have now been published in the new book Brain Trust.



In it, Garth shares what he learned after asking some 93 scientists the secrets to things like how to surf better, how to grow a man-eating plant, how to go about bribing a police officer to get out of a ticket, and how to build a world-record paper airplane. Oh, and how to get a job, along with getting their dating and dieting tips!



And perhaps most intriguingly for some of our readers - which lotteries in the U.S. are worth playing?



But it's the people he asked who make up Garth's Brain Trust. They're not just your ordinary, everyday, run-of-the-mill scientists, but Nobel prize winners and MacArthur "geniouses". People who have been awarded real medals for science.



Who are they? Well, they're people with whom we might be collaborating someday or have already, so we won't say. If you really must know though, the book is available through Amazon.



Highly recommended. You can tell them that the "brain trust over at Political Calculations" said so!



Previously on Political Calculations



Tools and posts inspired by Garth Sundem's Geek Logik:



Our Reviews of Other Books by Garth Sundem