New Jobless Claims Continue Rising

It has been several weeks since we last looked at the trend in the number of new jobless claims being filed in the U.S. each week. Our chart below shows how things stand through the initial report for 19 May 2012, which has about a 98% chance of being revised upward later today:

The good news is that the number of initial unemployment insurance benefit claim filings since 11 February 2012 is rising at an average rate of 1,005 per week, but really, that's only good news in contrast to the average increase of 2,497 per week it was clocking just over one month ago!

As we've noted before, gasoline prices appear to have the ability to shift the trajectory of the trend in the number of new jobless claims filed each week once they rise above an inflation-adjusted $3.50 per gallon. Above this level, it would seem, the combination of the increased costs of doing business and the reduction in revenues as consumers are forced to use their limited dollars to buy gasoline instead of other things they might rather have can affect the bottom line of businesses by enough to affect their employee retention decisions.

If we're lucky in the short term, we'll see if the rate of layoffs that prompt new unemployment insurance claim filings shifts to a new, more positive trajectory if gasoline prices fall back below the $3.50 per gallon mark in the weeks ahead.

But then, we'll be unlucky in the longer term because that will mean that the world demand for oil will have dropped enough to make that possible, as much of the world appears headed for recession. That of course will have consequences for the U.S. economy.

In the meantime though, we continue to expect the U.S. economy will rebound a bit in the third and fourth quarters of 2012, after passing through the equivalent of a microrecession during the current second quarter. The story for 2013 will be very different, we're afraid....

Economic Growth and the Chains of Debt

Does the size of a country's national debt with respect to the size of its economy affect its economic growth prospects?

To find out, we created the following chart showing a relationship between the inflation-adjusted economic growth rates for the member nations of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) against their "publically-held" debt-to-GDP ratios in 2011:

What we see is that high levels of national debt with respect to the size of a nation's economy, would appear to have a medium-strength effect upon its real rate of economic growth. For every 10% increase in a country's national debt with respect to its GDP, it would appear that its real economic growth rate is reduced on average by roughly 3/8th of a percent. A 26% increase in a nation's debt-to-GDP ratio then would coincide with the shaving of a full percent off its real GDP growth rate.

That matters because economic growth is exponential. A nation whose economy grows at an average rate of 3% per year will double in size in roughly 24 years. A nation whose economy grows a full percent less than that at an average rate of 2% per year will take 36 years to double in size. The difference between the two growth rates is very noticeable.

Looking at the United States' position on the chart, we note that the debt indicated in the chart applies only to the "publically-held" portion of its national debt - if we included the "intragovernmental" portion of its national debt, as would represent a more correct accounting of how much money the U.S. government has really borrowed, it would be over 100% of GDP in 2011.

Data Sources

CIA World Factbook. Country Comparison: Public Debt. Accessed 27 May 2012.

CIA World Factbook. Country Comparison: GDP - Real Growth Rate. Accessed 27 May 2012.

S&P 500 Stock Prices, Dividends per Share Converging As Expected

In case you're coming back from the Memorial Day holiday weekend in the U.S. with the question "Hey, are stock prices about where they should be right now?", we're happy to answer your question as follows: "Why, yes, stock prices are indeed about where they should be right now!"

As proof, here's the chart that says so, where we observe that the average change in the growth rate of stock prices as measured by the S&P 500 in May 2012 has just about converged with the long-established expected change in the growth rate of the index' underlying dividends per share that coincides with investor expectations for the fourth quarter of 2012:

We'll leave it as an exercise to our readers to divine where stock prices will go on average in June 2012. Nearly all the information you need is presented in the chart above - you just need to make an assumption about how much noise there will be in the stock market during that month!...

Book Review - Webinars: A Cookbook for Educators by Nicky Hockly

The Barcelona edtech community of The Round and close allies The Consultants E published their second ebook this week, Webinars:  A Cookbook for Educators by Nicky Hockly.  The author sets out to give the reader the recipe for great webinars and for the most part delivers on her promise.

The goal of The Round is to fill the gap between blogging and publishing, and here they have done just that.  By working with Ms. Hockly, perhaps the world's foremost expert on webinar language training, they have successfully given readers an affordable and convienent guide to running webinars without the hassle of chasing down her archive of blogs, interviews, and discussions.  The author draws nicely on her 20 years of experience as the ebook is laced with links to examples and activities, many from Ms. Hockly herself.

In fact, these are perhaps the most valueable parts of the book.  The videos clearly show the ingredients for making your online session a success.  Unfortunately, I read mine on a traditional B&W Kindle and had to transfer the links to my laptop.  IPad users will be able to benefit from the interactivity of the book.  It is nice to see the tech experts utilize the possibility of enhanced ebooks, something they largly neglected with their first title, 52.

Ms. Hockly begins her instructional guide by showing us around the technology.  She takes us back in time a bit and demonstrates how useful some of the older technology can be, like text chat and audio only.  For trainers who have never attended a webinar or run online training, this step-by-step approach is certainly worthwhile.  The end of each chapter includes 5, 10, and 30 minute activities to apply the lessons to real life.  When the book reaches video conferencing, she does a great job of evaluating the pros and cons of each platform.  Yet for business English trainers, especially those in-company, the absence of Cisco WebEx and Microsoft Live Meeting will be noticeable.  It is also clear from the author that she prefers Adobe Connect above the others.

The second half of the book builds on this platform knowledge and deals with organizing and running a webinar.  Of valuable note here is that the book does not appear to be directed at training language learners, rather to teacher trainers using webinars for professional development.  While her activities and structures can be used in the online classroom, her examples and descriptions are all from CPD situations.  Nonetheless, Ms. Hockly gives the reader a useful list of basic opening and closing activities to bookend a successful webinar.  For those who have never organized a webinar, her list of tasks for moderators and presenters is required reading.  She closes by giving us a nice range of one-liners from other experienced webinar warriors and you will no doubt recognize most of the names.  This certainly added the cherry on top of dessert.

In short, Cookbook is written for inexperienced trainers in online training.  It provides the reader with an excellently organized and easily affordable (€5.15) handbook for setting up and running professional webinars.  Old hands in the virtual environment can also benefit by benchmarking their current webinars against her nearly flawless examples.  However, for trainers who are currently struggling to adapt their face-to-face language training to the online environment, the real recipes are in her earlier work Teaching Online from Delta Publishing.

Make Plan "A" Your Only Plan!

Make PLAN A your only plan...especially if you say God gave you the vision.  Most people don’t need a Plan B; they need to fully dedicate themselves to Plan A! How can it be that God’s plan for your life has an alternative? He hasn’t changed His mind. Once you tap into His plan for you, neither should you. Diligence is what most of our plans require, not alternatives.

Be diligent. To quote my Pastor, Thaddeus Eastland, diligence is best defined as "thinking it through, then getting after it and then staying after it." Work as hard as you can. Respond to customers and opportunities quickly. The best ones don't wait for you. Diligence isn't just about working hard, however. It's about rising early and looking for every possible opportunity to achieve a goal – uncovering every rock. The Bible says that "the hand of the diligent makes rich" in Proverbs 10:4. This is just one of the many encouragements in the Bible towards diligence in all that we do.

They say money never sleeps. It does. But it gets up early. This is closely related to the concept of diligence. A word study on diligence uncovers that it carries with it the idea of getting out of bed and getting started early. Personally, I know that my most productive days and "seasons" have been when I've been most intentional about rising and getting to work before everyone else. When I get up late, I often feel like the whole day is close to being wasted. Get up early and get after it. You will be rewarded!

Make joining me on Facebook and subscribing to this blog a part of your plan!  Let's progress together!

Which Power Towers Would You Rather See Dot the Landscape?

The electrical pylons shown in the image below haven't been built, yet, but wouldn't it be totally cool if they were?

Source: DesignDepot (HT: Core77)

You Have Permission to Be Great(er)!

The Word for somebody today is "Go get it!"

As I was praying a few weeks ago concerning a few specific things that I feel like I'm lacking (both wants and needs are acceptable to pray for according to Phil 4:6), I was commanded to stop asking and go get them!! Then, as I often do, I asked whether I should share this or was that just for me.

Here's the reality for somebody... I'm giving you permission to go for your desires!! Do you want to start a non-profit? Go for it! Do you want to become a counselor? Start a business? Manufacture a product? Broadcast a television show?  Nobody's stopping you but you. You've got permission!  What is it that you've been waiting on permission to go do?  Stop waiting and go get it!

Get your permission slip here --->  LINKY POO and then send me a pic or post it to my Facebook page!!  Thank you!!!

Mark Anthony McCray helps people live on PURPOSE, achieve higher PERFORMANCE and experience true PROSPERITY. Be sure to subscribe to this blog so you don't miss a thing and forward this to a friend if you found it helpful. All material © Copyright, Mark Anthony McCray unless otherwise noted!

He can be reached in the following ways:

Mark@LiveBIGDieEmpty.com
Phone: 281-846-5720
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Click HERE for information on Mark as a speaker or presenter and HERE to learn about coaching programs to help you realize your potential and live more prosperously!

Measure Your Happiness Level!

We're not sure how we missed this bit of math previously, but scientists have worked out a math equation that may be used to quantify how happy you are!

No, we're not making this up! In fact, we've built a tool so you can calculate your current personal happiness level. Just answer the following questions by ranking yourself from 1 (not at all) to 10 (to a very large extent), and we'll do the rest....

The Factors of Happiness
Input Data [Rank Yourself for Each Question from 1 to 10]	Values
Are you outgoing, energetic, flexible and open to change?
Do you have a positive outlook, bounce back quickly from setbacks and feel that you are in control of your life?
Are your basic life needs met, in relation to personal health, finance, safety, freedom of choice and sense of community?
Can you call on the support of people close to you, immerse yourself in what you are doing, meet your expectations and engage in activities that give you a sense of purpose?

How Happy Are You?
Calculated Results	Values
Your Personal Happiness Level

And now you know exactly how happy you are right now, a least as might be quantified by some sort of a scientist on a scale from 1 to 100. If you'd like to adjust your happiness to a different level, you'll likely need to make some changes. The BBC's article suggests how that might work based upon your sex:

The researchers found that different factors were important for the different sexes.

Four in ten men said sex made them happy, and three in ten said a victory by a favourite sports team.

For seven in ten women happiness was related to being with family, and one in four said losing weight.

Romance featured higher for men than women. So did a pay rise and a hobby they enjoyed.

Women were more likely to cite sunny weather.

Ultimately though, it turns out to really be a matter of choice:

Ingrid Collins, a consultant psychologist at the London Medical Centre, told BBC News Online: "I would be very surprised if people sat down and had to work out whether they were happy or not.

"We can all be happy in a heartbeat if we make the decision to be so."

Indeed. And thank you for taking the time to sit down and work out whether you are happy or not with our tool!

"20 Seconds of Insane Courage"

"Sometimes all you need is twenty seconds of insane courage...just twenty seconds of embarrassing bravery... and I promise you something great will come of it." ~We Bought a Zoo 

Awesome words.  Just awesome.  And so true.  Courage is a key and here's what I love about it. For most of your most challenging tasks you need courage, but you don't need as much as you think. You think so much about the BIGNESS of the task in front of you and YOU THINK you're not up to it...but...

Here's what you've not remembered: You only need courage for a few seconds!  Just long enough to step out on faith. And, yes, you certainly have FIVE SECONDS of courage! For most things between you and your BEST LIFE, twenty seconds of courage is quite enough! That key can open large doors for you this week.  It can change your life forever.

Never back down from the challenge standing between you and your future! NEVER!  The harsh reality is that your deepest dreams will not come true unless you take some chances.  If that doesn't work, just remind yourself of your big WHY. I have a number of reasons to be more courageous... 

How about you?  Find your reason to be courageous for twenty seconds today and go make a difference!

Oh...and if you aren't subscribing yet, please do and join me on Facebook for daily updates!

"The wicked flee when no one is pursuing, 

But the righteous are bold as a lion." ~Proverbs 28:1

"...The lion which is mighty among beasts 

And does not retreat before any..." ~Proverbs 30:30

The Spring 2012 Snapshot of Expected S&P 500 Earnings

Now that we're halfway through the second quarter of 2012, how has the expected future changed for the U.S. stock market earnings changed from the beginning of the year?

Our chart below reveals the answer!

In this chart, we see that compared to our snapshot from 19 January 2012, investor expectations for earnings in 2012 have dimmed, especially for the first three quarters of the year.

Meanwhile, they appear to expect that 2013 will provide a much better environment for the S&P 500's earnings per share.

As for why they expect that the future will play out this way is something that we'll leave up to your imagination!

Spain: A Very Different Fiscal Crisis

Having looked at how Greece arrived at its current crisis, we thought we'd turn to the next country that is coming to dominate the bad economic news in Europe: Spain.

Here's our chart showing the relationship between Spain's GDP per capita and its annual government tax collections and expenditures per capita for each year from 2000 through 2011:

Unlike Greece, we find that the Spanish government's expenditures throughout much of the period appeared to be stable, with the government running significant surpluses in 2005 through 2007.

Unfortunately for Spain however, those surpluses were based on that country's large housing bubble, which greatly increased the numbers of people paying the nation's highest income tax rates as their incomes were highly inflated during this period of time. We know this is the case because Spain's tax rates throughout nearly all of this period were very stable, and essentially unchanged from 2000 through 2010. The only way we would see this pattern then is if the distribution of income in Spain during this time shifted to increase the numbers and incomes of upper income earners, who were benefiting from the bubble economy.

Instead, we find that Spain's financial crisis came about because it also increased its spending to keep pace with its bubble economy, which simply could not be sustained. Once the bubble burst in 2008, the Spanish government found itself in a very precarious position as it was spending far more money than it could ever count upon sustainably collecting. And as the Spanish economy worsened from 2008 through 2011, it created even greater strains upon the nation's finances as the economy plummeted into deep recession, given the large scope of the malinvestments weighing it down.

That brings us to today, where the fiscal situation of Spain threatens to become even worse because of the deteriorating health of its banking system. Here, because Spanish banks were exposed to so much of the fallout from the bursting of the Spanish real estate bubble, whether or not they can continue now depends upon whether or not they can secure a massive bailout from the government and the European Union, as the threat of a national financial system collapse is becoming an almost inevitable possibility.

Busy Lives and Homework; Getting more than 90 min a week

Business English learners don't do homework.  Well, at least mine don't.  With only 60 or 90 minutes of English a week, making progress without self-study is like, well... you know. 

The root cause for this is misleading.  They will always say, "I don't have time because I am so busy."  But this is not actually true.  In reality, because English is a tool for work, studying English in their free time is the same as taking their work home.  At a time when everyone is talking about maintaining their work-life balance, English for work simply falls off the priority list.  But all hope is not lost.  By being open about homework and understanding how the student sees it, we can increase their involvement.

What can I say... I didn't do my homework either.

First, ask the learners sometime near the beginning of the course how much time they are willing to dedicate learning English outside of the the classroom. Enter some kind of informal agreement on dedication.

Then we need to understand the thinking of the learner. They will go through several stages...

1. They will test it. At this point, it is up to the trainer to say that this is a test. If the self-study experience feels like a burden or requirement with the corresponding negative emotions, it will not continue. The trainer should get feedback for the learner whether this type of self-study is enjoyable, challenging, and effective. Designing activities which fit learning styles is particularly important at this stage because they will find suitable activities more enjoyable.

2. They will look for reward. In the adult learning environment, this will be primarily peer respect. However, trainer respect can also go a long way. If the others see the respect they get for completing the homework, others will seek that reward. When one or two people complete self-study I like to give them the chance to shine in class. This could be simply by having the others congratulate (a little applause) them or by having the learners teach what they learned. It could be to set up activities which use the material to let these specific learners have an advantage (all will notice). The problem with this is that increasing levels of reward are needed. This is often where games and competitions come in.  Karl Dean has been kind enough to share some of the ways he builds rewards and games into his lessons and inspires self-study.  Please check out his accompanying blog post here.

3. They will expect to see progress.  At this point, the trainer's job is to build the self-study into the self-reflective process. This means including questions like, "What have you learned outside of class in the last two months?" It can also be done during a class feedback discussion if there is time. If the activities are not chosen well and the learners do not sense and acknowledge progress, they will abandon homework.

4. They will experiment further. Convinced now that homework can increase progress, they will begin to experiment. The trainer's role is to provide direction, acknowledge and spread this experimentation. Here it can be helpful to develop 'subject matter experts' (SMEs) within the group. For example, one student can be the verb tenses expert, one can be the financial vocab expert, etc. We can now beginning supporting this self-study by turning over parts of our lessons to our SMEs.
Each learner will move through or drop out of the stages at different speeds. One of the challenges I see is trying to adjust when the individual learners have different time committments and are at different steps in the process. I certainly haven't perfected homework, but I am getting better results using this theory.
By understanding these stages of thinking we can design and change our homework assignments.

Ah the horrible memories!  Grandfather helping the grandchildren
with their homework by Lukian Popov

This brings us to some general tips:

• Start small, but with a concrete tasks.  Give them models of what should be done and guide them to completion.
• Play with various types of homework to fit with learning style and preference.
• Visual tasks (mind maps, pictures and colors, highlighting texts, graphically reworking class notes)
• Auditory tasks (prepare a verbal review of the last lesson, podcasts, finding target language in listening files, writing dialogs)
• Kinesthetic tasks (moving note cards, java exercises, going and 'finding' language, activities which make the language tangible)
• 'The Old Guard' (gap fills, crosswords, matching, etc.)
• Provide learners with a menu of homework.
• Add a peer check to the homework, e.g. "Email all the participants your review of this article and five words you learned."
• Do not make the next lesson hinge on their homework.  Always have a plan for zero completion.
• Check the homework in class... this takes lesson time, don't underestimate the time.  For them the homework was more of a committment than attending the lesson.
• Make homework a routine.  Perhaps not every lesson, but regularly (I prefer every other week).
• Don't forget about the things we did 3-6 months ago.
• Build buy-in with praise, attention, and demostrated progress.

These are certainly no magic bullet, but they are definitely more effective than simply handing out a worksheet with an answer key and hoping.  But who knows, maybe over time we can convince them that both of their personalities (work and personal) can benefit from speaking a second language.

Random Thoughts from My Head

Just sitting here reflecting on some things as I work. I should be done with work for the day soon... but I doubt it. I'm pushing myself now because I'm REALLY looking forward to being able to enjoy the Summer. Diligence now. Play later.  Some random thoughts rattling around in my head...

1. Read to Lead. What we become depends upon what we read. My life is better when I'm reading something. It energizes me. Every time I start reading something, I notice enough of a change to make me wonder why I don't read more.

2. Stop Quitting.  If you want to make real, lasting progress, you have to stop quitting. This is a message I'm working on. "Killing the Spirit of Quit in Your Life"

3. Worry About YOU!  My new favorite passage might be John 21:22 but maybe not for the reasons most people would think on first reading. I think I can build an entire presentation on it. I think it holds the a real key to progressing in life and relationships.

4. One is Lonely Number.  Most people (especially Christians) will admit to being an alcoholic faster than they will admit to being lonely... yet one is completely natural and the other is a dangerous addiction. We treat people struggling with addictions with sympathy and those who struggle with loneliness like emotional weaklings. Here's a self-test ---> IF YOU DARE!

5. So Much Stupid.  There is a staggering amount of stupid stuff posted to Facebook these days. Here's an example. So... it's okay to kiss horses?

Here's another example. Apparently someone feels like it's a good idea for Americans to think even less than we do now...

Our main problem as humans is (and has always been!) that we do too much feeling and too little thinking about where those feelings will take us if not managed better.

6. New Levels Needed.  I've reached a point where people expect a certain standard from me. I have to make sure less and less of my stuff falls into the stupid category.  Not always easy.  Not at all.

A Short-Lived Order in the S&P 500

On Friday, 18 May 2012, the state of order that had existed in the stock market since 4 August 2011 came to an end.

You can see that is the case in our highly refined chart below, which is based upon the daily values for both the value of the S&P 500 index and its trailing year dividends per share, rather than the average monthly values for both that we typically feature at Political Calculations.

What we see is that the daily closing value of the index broke below its lower 3-Sigma "statistical equilibrium limit" curve that defines the bottom of the range where we could have reasonably expected stock prices to be found at least 99.7% of the time during this relative period of order in the stock market. The very low probability that we would see such an outcome if the statistical equilibrium defining the period of relative order was still in effect leads us to make the determination that the existing state of order in the market has broken down.

For us, "order" in the stock market can be said to exist whenever stock prices and their underlying dividends per share are closely coupled. When order exists in the stock market, the basic relationship between the two may be described in mathematical terms by a power law relationship, where the exponent is the ratio of the exponential growth rate of stock prices with respect to the exponential growth rate of dividends per share over time.

The basic variation of stock prices with respect to the mean trend curve defined by that power law relationship then may be reasonably described by a normal distribution, with the standard deviation in the data being measured by the difference between actual stock prices and the value of the mean trend curve for the corresponding level of dividends per share. Technically, this is the residual distribution of the data, which allows us to take the rising or falling value of stock prices and dividends per share into account, which would otherwise inflate the value of the standard deviation.

With that being the case, when order exists in the stock market as we have defined it, we have a potentially powerful method for forecasting where stock prices will go in the future. Under those conditions, stock prices will, 68.2% of the time, fall in the range between one standard deviation above or below the mean trend curve and will, 95% of the time, fall in the range between two standard deviations above or below the mean trend curve. As we have already noted, they will fall within three standard deviations above or below the mean trend curve 99.7% of the time when such order exists. All we need to know to successfully forecast stock prices when order exists is what the expected value of dividends per share is at a given future point of time.

That works up until order breaks down in the stock market, as it did on 18 May 2012. In which case, we have invented entirely other methods for dealing with that situation, which is really simply when chaos is in the driver's seat for determining stock prices, which we can do pretty well in the relative absence of noise.

If only we hadn't chosen to stop making these kinds of forecasts public, rather than simply offering timely observations. Again, and again and again.

Maybe then, people like Cantor Fitzgerald's Peter Cecchini wouldn't be so surprised about what's changed since April....

But then, what we're doing just isn't possible, is it? Just ask the guys over at Seeking Alpha....

The Live BIG! Monday Motivational Moment - COMING SOON!

I've been really committed to giving more of myself lately! As my pastor so eloquently reminded us weeks ago (and it impacted me deeply), the miracle is in the pouring out, not in the pouring in! (Get with me on my upcoming teleconference and I'll explain more!) Anyway, that's why I'm doing this conference call. To help someone. That's also why I stayed up overnight a couple of weeks ago putting together "The 9 Paths to Prosperity" Free eCourse. (Check it out my signing up on my blog. It will come to your e-mail box over the course of several weeks with a lesson per week. No catches.)

One thing we've got to do is help you get rid of the "Spirit of Quit" - that thing that makes so many people throw in the towel these days and constantly get to a place of needing to start over and start over and start over. Sometimes you need a pat on the back. Sometimes you need a kick in the pants. I aim on providing both - as needed!!

Here's something you can do for me today! I need your help spreading the word! Please remember to leave me your comments so I know how to serve you better!! This also lets other people know you're engaged in what we're doing here. If this was helpful, forward it to a friend. Talk to you soon! Please subscribe and visit me on my Live BIG! Die Empty. Facebook page!!

 

Being Magnanimous

I've always felt like one of the best qualities a person could have is being what they used to call "magnanimous."  They don't really use that word any more.  I've always wanted to be that kind of person so I admire it in others.  One of my favorite definitions is "to be very generous or forgiving, especially towards a rival or someone less powerful than oneself."

It's being forgiving and more than that.  It's being generous and it's also more than that even.  It's being a big person...as opposed to being a small person.  You can hear the words "magnificent" or "magnitude" in it.  I love it!  It also has the Latin root word "animus" in there, meaning "spirit" which you can hear in the word "animated" for example.

Enough of the nerd hour.

Here's the thing.  Magnanimity is rare these days so when you see it, it stands out.  This is the person who extends grace where it isn't deserved.  This is the person who goes with you two miles when they could have been off the hook with one.  They don't take retribution when they have a right to it in the world's eyes.  They are great, big and seem to operate above common standards.  This is being magnanimous.

Why should you care?  You should care because you have never seen a small person rise to great heights.  It's almost as if the entire universe conspires against petty people to entrap them in cages of their own making.    On the other hand, I want you to be big, a GIANT!  I want you to grow into everything you were meant to be.  The only way it's going to happen is if you decide to live above your circumstances, expectations and common ways of doing things.

Common doesn't get you anywhere and it certainly doesn't earn you any respect.  Only magnanimity does that.

Here's something you can do for me today! Please remember to leave me your comments so I know how to serve you better!! If this was helpful, forward it to a friend. Talk to you soon! Please subscribe and visit me on my Live BIG! Die Empty. Facebook page!!

Three Charts for the S&P 500

Good morning, Kremlinologists! For some seemingly inexplicable reason, we're breaking our pattern of recent weeks where we would only look at the recent performance of the S&P 500 or its dividend futures just once during a week, if that, with our third post on the topic this week! Even more curiously, it comes after one of those posts, with the cryptic title of "The Ultimate Sell Signal", where we looked at Great Crash of 1929, went viral.

But we're really taking a breather today. And perhaps for the next several days, before we'll resume posting on the topic again [3]. In the meantime, here are our three favorite charts showing the relationship between stock prices as represented by the S&P 500 and their underlying dividends per share. First up, let's look at the recent history of how the future for the S&P 500's trailing year dividends per share has changed over the past two months [1][4]:

Next, let's see how the chart we featured at the end of "The Ultimate Sell Signal" changed from 11 May 2012:

Finally, let's see why we might be okay in taking a breather for a short span, with our third chart showing how closely the change in the growth rate for stock prices is pacing the expected amplified change in the growth rate for trailing year dividends per share in the fourth quarter of 2012, where investors would seem to currently be focused [2]:

Have a good weekend!

Notes

[1] Yes, we know sentences like that are difficult for many to follow. But as those of us who navigate through the time vortex that is the stock market well know, "tenses are difficult, aren't they?"

[2] See what we mean?!

[3] Update 18 May 2012, 6:40 PM EDT: Make that "hours" instead of "days".... See you next week!

[4] Chart commentary corrected to fully apply for the fourth quarter of 2012 - a portion of the comments for the original version applied to the third quarter of 2012. Our apologies for missing the error!

Selected lesson ideas from my posts during Cert IBET

For the past 7 weeks, I have been participating in the Cert IBET course from The Consultants E moderated by Carl Dowse.  I cannot express how incredible the experience has been.  As I look back over the past weeks in our conferences and course discussions, I realized how much I had written.

So, I am posting a selection of lesson ideas I have contributed to the course.  I hope you find them useful.

Warmers

#1 Another way to do 10 Questions

Warmer idea based on the 10 Questions activity.  These questions come from Inside the Actor’s Studio a television show in the US.  Celebrity answers to these might add another element of fun to the lesson.  YouTube has an entire collection… simply search a celebrity.  For example: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueDgkj0GI1I

·         What is your favorite word?

·         What is your least favorite word?

·         What turns you on?

·         What turns you off?

·         What sound or noise do you love?

·         What sound or noise do you hate?

·         What is your favorite curse word?

·         What profession other than your own would you like to attempt?

·         What profession would you not like to do?

·         If heaven exists, what would you like to hear God say when you arrive at the pearly gates?

The “Works every time” - Experts

I typically use an activity where the learners talk about something they know well. It brings up some great talents and experience and for my adult learner (not to mention they are colleagues) it helps get the course off on the right foot.

I pass out note cards and I tell them to write 5-6 things they can teach the class on the cards.

I put my 'card' on the board.

Here are some of the things I have used for me in the past:

• How to speak English. (okay, maybe this is a bit too much)
• How to make killer BBQ spare ribs with little effort.
• How to make awesome guacamole.
• How to diffuse a bomb. (yes, sometimes I use this)
• How to build set a table for a formal dinner.
• How to throw a curveball.
• The French Revolution.

Here are some recent ones I have seen in my classes.

• The names of all the Alps over 4000m (we tested her with Google images, she could really do it)
• How to dance flamenco.
• The best bike tour across northern Bavaria.
• How to break a board with your fist.
• How to raise children. (this was an interesting one)

As you can imagine, when partners change cards, the first question is "How do you know this?" It leads to all kinds of great conversations about personal history, hobbies, families, etc. The best part is, it causes lots of questions. Others I have used tend not to create as many.

As far as language goes, I am able to help them find some of the words they really want to have because they are so interested in these topics. I like this one.

Authentic Materials

Here is an example of how I build authentic resources into recent lessons. The two classes took the lesson in different directions so we used two different websites.

Aim: To familiarize learners with vocabulary for budgeting, including various types of revenues and expenses

Level: B1-B2

Context: Discussing the business of football (soccer) then equating this to the learner's business. It is budgeting time at the company and Bayern Munich also just reached the CL final.

1. General discussion about football.
Do you like it? If not, why not?
What is your favorite team? Why?
(cover some football vocabulary, e.g. tie, penalties, bandwagon, etc.)
Bayern Munich just reached the Champions League final... how much money will they get if they win?

2. Guide discussion into the business side of football.
Typically we start getting into more general business vocab (be in debt, licenses, etc.)

3. Authentic content
in one class, the discussion focused on player salaries and transfer fees. It was a lower level group so we looked at sites showing the payroll of Bundesliga clubs, practiced saying the numbers, talked about contract terms, etc.
In another class, the discussion went on to Spanish club debts and we read an article on how the authorities are handling the high debt figures. Standard structure... prediction, reading, comprehension questions, mine for key language (in this case I wanted to ignore football specific words and focus on things like be obliged to pay, and could be forced to.

4. Make a football club income statement
the students work in groups to list all the income and expenses. They can typically describe them, but lack the specific terms. I add the term to the explanation. We compile our lists.

Here is a sample of the board work/slide work.

Revenues	Expenses
Ticket sales	Salaries and wages
Merchandise	Facilities
Transfer fees	Travel expenses
Media rights	Equipment
Sponsorship	Transfer fees

5. Change the football club income statement to the company's income statement

Now that we have talked about all the inflows and outflows, the pairs 'change' the income statement to reflect the revenues and expenses for their company. Some things are the same, but some are much different. We typically start talking about the various components of overhead. For transfer fees, we changed the words to divestitures and acquisitions. And so on...

6. Learners rank the largest expenses in their company. Now that we have a nice complete list, the pairs much rank the expenses (largest to smallest) and say why they think so. This is a very difficult task because they do not have the figures. The final group discussion results in much agreeing/disagreeing and defending opinions. By the end of the lesson, I counted that the participants had used the target budget vocabulary about 5-6 times in the discussions.

There are many ways to go with a football lesson and there are plenty of authentic materials. In this case, the material was not the primary aim of the lesson, just support.

A Technology Wow Moment in the Classroom (Wordle)

In-company training, on site…
Level: B1
Class size on paper 14
Class size in reality 6
Never know who is going to show up, no materials, no syllabus... but training objectives.
Approach: Dogme or Just In Time Coaching whichever applies at the time
Lesson Aim: Take conversation into a language/skill direction (lexis, grammar, function, emails, presentations, etc.)

We started with a conversation about how they are doing... Is work stressful? How is everyone feeling? The company has seen drops in revenue and morale has been low. I know that they are entering budgeting time and must create forecasts for the next fiscal year. They are busy.

I asked them about their budgeting forecasts. Are they finished? Are they still working on it? I am fishing for tenses (present pref. and cont., past, will future) we have seen in past lessons.

A woman says that she is having a really hard time creating forecasts because they have cancelled an agreement with a customer. All question why the company would stop selling to a customer. I thought of an example with a mobile provider in the US (Sprint) which fired over 1000 customers because they were unprofitable. I took the devil's advocate role and I said, "I don't know the whole situation, but I think it is okay to fire customers." (Note: I have fired BE customers because they demanded more than they were worth.) I asked them to brainstorm why a company would fire a customer while I found an article online about the mobile provider.

They came up with nothing.

Now came my moment of technical glory.

My computer was connected to the projector and they watched me copy the article into Wordle and create a word cloud. Ohhh! came from the crowd. I was thinking, "Yeah, that's right, this is cool." I changed the cloud so it appeared better on the screen. I set them the task of working in groups to define the words... starting largest first. I helped. The cloud was huge, but I was just trying to pre-teach vocab. I told them that we are going to read an article and the larger the word, the more often it appeared in the text.

Then we did a prediction exercise from the word cloud and I asked them to say what the company sells and why it fired customers. This was good.

Then we read the text... discussed and then talked about which of their customers monopolize resources (a collocation we identified). If I had had more time a great idea would be for them to write the email firing the customers... polite + bad news (I love this topic). Sadly the same group won't be back next week and we will have to find something else.

But for that wordle moment... It was amazing. They were in awe and I thought applause was coming.

Inter-cultural communication

I've only recently started dealing with culture in the classroom. Most of my learners have trouble with it in emails because fewer and fewer are travelling.

My approach is this... I teach the Germans German culture. It is unrealistic to try to teach all of them the dos and don'ts of all the countries they are dealing with. And I find the categories of high context and low context a bit unwieldy. We start getting into too many maybes and mights.

Here is my outline of German culture of German workers:

1.    Myths and Facts of German Culture

1.    Beer and Bratwurst (in reality, significant regional variety; stronger regional than national identity)

2.    Punctuality (true; skeptical of spontaneity)

3.    Order and Discipline (rules ensure equitable enjoyment of societies benefits; example jaywalking, subway tickets, autobahn; misconception about German humor, it is very sarcastic and satirical)

4.    A Nation of Engineers (what quality means in German; misconception about value of creative thinking, "You can't make a Porsche and not be creative!")

2.    Public vs. Private

1.    Highly organized public sphere (clubs, groups)

2.    Hobbies taken to a professional level

3.    Low internal migration

4.    The difference between friend and acquaintance in German

5.    Privacy as mutual respect

3.    Communication Styles

1.    Prefer to see the fact and draw their own conclusions (nations of experts; example 35 y.o. worker in Germany has 20 years job experience, often much less in US)

2.    Foreigner may experience information overload

3.    Direct vs. impolite (the power of the truth; examples, how customer service is evaluated; the value of complaints)

4.    Professional disagreement (separating the opinion from the person)

5.    Making a decision (plan first, decide, follow plan; when problems arise, try to change the situation, not the plan)

This outline is just a summary, but my participants love it! They comment afterwards that they can see why emails and presentations haven't worked in the past.

Negotiations

For example, most people see negotiations as two sides trying to hash out a multi-million dollar merger or similar situation. But people bargain all the time. So in the bargaining section, I just make the task relevant to their situation.

It could be:

• Buying knock-offs in the Czech Republic.
• Getting their teenager to clean their room.
• "Your goal is to take Friday off... get your colleagues to do enough of your work to accomplish this."
• Sell a product no one would want (I think this comes from The Business from MacMillan) e.g. a 1985 Chevy with 200,000 km, an apartment next to a chemical plant, a broken remote control, etc.

In this case, I also like to teach the skill of convincing. This is usually in three steps.

1.    When someone objects or states an opinion you don't like, ask questions until you find a weak point. (question forms)

2.    Convert opinions into negative question forms. (simple to teach, often feel unnatural of learners at the beginning)

3.    Use hand-off questions to bring allies into the dialog. (lexical chunks)

All three have language elements, and when they are put together make a nearly unstoppable force.

Useful Language and ‘Phrasebook’ Training

I'm not sure if I am the first to use the term. It basically applies to those situations in which the trainer is given a set of materials for specific skills to teach useful phrases.  My thinking is, "Why don't we just send them a business English phrasebook and come back and test them in 6 months?" Hence the term.

Okay, I like models because I feel like they give the learner an idea of what right looks like. But I try to make the PPP model more interesting and personal. Today I taught a group of pre-int learners opening a presentation.

I used the content from BBC's Talking Business. I played the two presentations without any vocab prep and asked them to note the main subject of the presentations and two to three topics the presenter would be covering. They checked in pairs.

Then I played again and their task was to listen for discourse markers. They noted as many as they could find and again checked each other.

Next I pulled up the transcript on the projector in a word document. I gave them time to read and check. I noted the discourse markers and the use of "I'd like to" in the transcript. We talked a bit about why we would use discourse markers and the "would like" form.

Next, I had the marketing manager to come up, sit at the computer, and highlight (using the highlighter tool) any language from the text they would find useful for opening a presentation. His job was to elicit ideas from the group. I left the room.

Finally, I asked them to prepare an opening for a presentation. It could be a real scenario or simply a presentation about what they did last week. It was up to them. At this point, I purposely did not give them print outs of the text because the language transfer would take more effort from screen to paper. After 10 minutes of prep, they gave their openings in pairs and received peer/trainer feedback on clarity and organization. Most had written quite a bit and were using extensive notes to give their opening. So I had them switch partners and do it again without their notes.

So, this was a fairly straight forward lesson, but I like to allow them to choose the useful language they want. In the end, the presentations were very good, but the learners were not locked into a certain set of phrases. There's nothing crazy here, but it is an effective lesson with zero prep, a nice challenge, and clear takeaway for the participants.