Rabu, 07 Maret 2012

Choose Wisdom over Weakness

When is the last time you asked someone for their opinion regarding what you should do? And really listened!!???


Seeking input when you're facing the challenging decisions of life is not weakness; it's WISDOM! Learn how to ask people around you a simple question - "What do you think?" - and it will change your life by helping you make better decisions. Of course you still make the final determination, but there is great wisdom and victory in a MULTITUDE of counsel, i.e., seek as much feedback as you can get when you're facing major decisions!

"Where there is no guidance the people fall, But in abundance of counselors there is victory." ~ Proverbs 11:14

"Listen to counsel and accept discipline, That you may be wise the rest of your days." ~ Proverbs 19:20


"Prepare plans by consultation, And make war by wise guidance." ~ Proverbs 20:18

I'm always amazed at how much pride people take in "doing their own thing" or saying "I don't listen to anybody but GOD!" It's funny to me because...

A) "Doing their own thing" usually hasn't worked that well for them and...
B) It's God Himself who repeatedly tells us to GET COUNSEL and GET TEACHERS!!!

Honestly, I think it's because He knows we have a hard time hearing Him in the heat of the battle. For many of you, your emotions sound strangely like the "voice of God" when you're pressured.

Seek input. Get counsel. Talk to people. That's not weakness; that's wise.

The Future Just Got a Lot Cooler Than It Used to Be

And it can run a mile in 3 minutes and 20 seconds. Meet Boston Dynamics' Cheetah, which has just set the land-speed record for robots with legs as part of DARPA's Maximum Mobility and Manipulation (M3) program (HT: Core77):





From the press release:




DARPA’S “CHEETAH” SETS LAND SPEED RECORD FOR LEGGED ROBOTS
March 5, 2012



The use of ground robots in military explosive-ordinance-disposal missions already saves many lives and prevents thousands of other casualties. If the current limitations on mobility and manipulation capabilities of robots can be overcome, robots could much more effectively assist warfighters across a greater range of missions. DARPA's Maximum Mobility and Manipulation (M3) program seeks to create and demonstrate significant scientific and engineering advances in robot mobility and manipulation capabilities.



The M3 program pursues four parallel tracks of research and development: tool design, improvement of production methods and processes, improvement in control of robot mobility and manipulation, and prototype demonstration.



This video shows a demonstration of the "Cheetah" robot galloping at speeds of up to 18 miles per hour (mph), setting a new land speed record for legged robots. The previous record was 13.1 mph, set in 1989.



The robot's movements are patterned after those of fast-running animals in nature. The robot increases its stride and running speed by flexing and un-flexing its back on each step, much as an actual cheetah does.



The current version of the Cheetah robot runs on a laboratory treadmill where it is powered by an off-board hydraulic pump, and uses a boom-like device to keep it running in the center of the treadmill. Testing of a free-running prototype is planned for later this year.



While the M3 program conducts basic research and is not focused on specific military missions, the technology it aims to develop could have a wide range of potential military applications.



The DARPA M3 performer for Cheetah is Boston Dynamics of Waltham, Mass.




So, will you be sleeping better tonight?

Selasa, 06 Maret 2012

Gasoline Prices and the Unemployment Rate

A story in two pictures, covering January 1976 (the earliest year for which we have average inflation-adjusted monthly retail motor gasoline prices in the U.S.) through February 2012:



Inflation-Adjusted Motor Gasoline Prices and U.S. Unemployment Rate, January 1976 to February 2012

Now the exact same data, but this time, with the data for average inflation-adjusted monthly retail motor gasoline prices shifted two years forward in time (to the right):



Inflation-Adjusted Motor Gasoline Prices (Shifted Two Years Later) and U.S. Unemployment Rate, January 1976 to February 2012

ATTN: White House Staffer - guess what feature will be coming back to Political Calculations in the very near future?...



Data Sources



U.S. Energy Information Administration. Short-Term Energy Outlook - Real Energy Prices. [Excel spreadsheet]. Accessed 5 March 2012.



U.S. Department of Labor. Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey. Unemployment Rate - Civilian Labor Force - LNS14000000 [Database]. Accessed 5 March 2012.

Senin, 05 Maret 2012

Why So Many "Green Energy" Companies Fail

A Venn diagram is a tool for visually demonstrating the relationships between different sets of things. Using these diagrams, we can quickly see what aspects of the things we're comparing are common between the sets we're comparing, as well which aspects are not common.

With that in mind, here is our Venn diagram showing the relationship between "Green Energy" companies, and "Energy Companies That Don't Need Constant Government Subsidies To Stay Afloat":

Venn Diagram: Why So Many 'Green Energy' Companies Fail

We note that there is a small area where the groups overlap, but otherwise, the two groups have little in common....

Need proof? Here's a starter list of recent or pending "green energy" business failures, all of which feature companies that have received substantial backing from the U.S. Department of Energy or other government entities, which have strongly favored such companies in recent years:

Why, it's almost as if the only reason someone would form a "green energy" company is to try to cash in on government subsidies being blindly dished out by the U.S. Department of Energy, rather than try to establish a sustainable business!

P.S. Note that many of the links above are from February or March 2012. This listing will only get longer....

P.P.S. Warren Meyer offers more insight into whose investment portfolios are really benefiting from largess using taxpayer dollars....

Jumat, 02 Maret 2012

How High Gas Prices Affect the Number of Layoffs in the U.S.

How do high gasoline prices affect the pace of job layoffs in the United States?



We now have the ability to answer this question thanks to a recent break in the trend for seasonally-adjusted initial unemployment insurance claim filed each week in the United States.



Here, we note that the data for these new jobless benefit claim filings reflect major changes have occurred in the business outlook for U.S. employers making employee retention decisions some 2 to 3 weeks earlier. This time delay corresponds to the typical weekly or biweekly pay periods that most U.S. employers have, where employers allow their current pay period to run out, with any changes they might make with respect to their staffing levels being implemented at the beginning of their next pay period.



Average U.S. Motor Gasoline Prices, 1 March 2011 to 1 March 2012 - Source: Gas Buddy

For the most recently broken trend in U.S. layoff activity, we observed that average fuel prices in the U.S. rose above $3.50 per gallon in the week between 19 March 2011 and 26 March 2011, which showed up in the data for new jobless benefits being filed in the week ending 9 April 2011, which marked the beginning of the trend. The effect on U.S. layoffs was to derail the pace of post-recession economic recovery in the United States, sending it on a much slower pace of improvement from that point forward.



That continued until the week between 5 November 2011 and 12 November 2011, when the average price of motor gasoline in the United States fell back below the $3.50 per gallon mark. As we saw before, the drop in gasoline prices below this level corresponds to a sudden improvement in the pace of layoff activity in the United States, which began improving more rapidly just 2-3 weeks later, after 26 November 2011.



The chart below shows the nine major trends we have observed in U.S. layoff activity from 7 January 2006 through 25 February 2012:



Primary Trends in Seasonally-Adjusted Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, 7 January 2006 - 25 February 2012

The table below describes each of these major trends, including the causal factors behind each that we have been able to identify:


































































Timing and Events of Major Shifts in Layoffs of U.S. Employees
Period Starting Date Ending Date Likely Event(s) Triggering New Trend (Occurs 2 to 3 Weeks Prior to New Trend Taking Effect)
A 7 January 2006 22 April 2006 This period of time marks a short term event in which layoff activity briefly dipped as the U.S. housing bubble reached its peak. Builders kept their employees busy as they raced to "beat the clock" to capitalize on high housing demand and prices.
B 29 April 2006 17 November 2007 The calm before the storm. U.S. layoff activity is remarkably stable as solid economic growth is recorded during this period, even though the housing and credit bubbles have begun their deflation phase.
C 24 November 2007 26 July 2008 Federal Reserve acts to slash interest rates for the first time in 4 1/2 years as it begins to respond to the growing housing and credit crisis, which coincides with a spike in the TED spread. Negative change in future outlook for economy leads U.S. businesses to begin increasing the rate of layoffs on a small scale, as the beginning of a recession looms in the month ahead.
D 2 August 2008 21 March 2009 Oil prices spike toward inflation-adjusted all-time highs (over $140 per barrel in 2008 U.S. dollars.) Negative change in future outlook for economy leads businesses to sharply accelerate the rate of employee layoffs.
E 28 March 2009 7 November 2009 Stock market bottoms as future outlook for U.S. economy improves, as rate at which the U.S. economic situation is worsening stops increasing and begins to decelerate instead. U.S. businesses react to the positive change in their outlook by significantly slowing the pace of their layoffs, as the Chinese government announced how it would spend its massive economic stimulus effort, which stood to directly benefit U.S.-based exporters of capital goods and raw materials. By contrast, the U.S. stimulus effort that passed into law over a week earlier had no impact upon U.S. business employee retention decisions, as the measure was perceived to be excessively wasteful in generating new and sustainable economic activity.
F 14 November 2009 11 September 2010 Introduction of HR 3962 (Affordable Health Care for America Act) derails improving picture for employees of U.S. businesses, as the measure (and corresponding legislation introduced in the U.S. Senate) is likely to increase the costs to businesses of retaining employees in the future. Employers react to the negative change in their business outlook by slowing the rate of improvement in layoff activity.
G 18 September 2010 2 April 2011 Possible multiple causes. Political polling indicates Republican party could reasonably win both the U.S. House and Senate, preventing the Democratic party from being able to continue cramming unpopular and economically destructive legislation into law, bringing relief to distressed U.S. businesses. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announces Federal Reserve will act if economy worsens, potentially restoring some employer confidence. The White House announces there will be no big new stimulus plan, eliminating the possibility that more wasteful economic activity directed by the federal government would continue to crowd out the economic activity of U.S. businesses.
H 9 April 2011 26 November 2011 Rising oil and gasoline prices exceed the critical $3.50-$3.60 per gallon range (in 2011 U.S. dollars), forcing numerous small businesses to act to reduce staff to offset rising costs in order to prevent losses. The trend ends when average motor gasoline prices in the U.S. fall back below the $3.50 level in the week between 5 November 2011 and 12 November 2011 - the corresponding improvement in business outlook shows up in the data with the next full pay cycle (2-3 weeks later, or rather, the week ending 26 November 2011!)
I 3 December 2011 Present With average gasoline prices in the U.S. having fallen below the critical $3.50 per gallon level, employers respond to the improving business outlook by reducing the number weekly layoffs at a faster rate, as both businesses and consumers benefit from lower transporation and fuel costs, while consumers gain more disposable income.


Using residual analysis, we can eliminate the variability associated with rising or falling general trends over time and improve our ability to both make forecasts of U.S. layoff activity and to detect changes in trends. The chart below shows the trends after accounting for those general changes:



Residual Distribution for Seasonally-Adjusted Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, 7 January 2006 - 25 February 2012

Our final chart looks more closely at the recently completed eighth major trend ("Trend H") and the newly established trend ("Trend I"):



Residual Distribution for Seasonally-Adjusted Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, 26 March 2011 - 25 February 2012

With average motor gasoline prices now having risen back above the $3.50 per gallon mark within the last several weeks, which proved to be the trigger point for affecting employee retention decisions at U.S. employers in 2011, we anticipate that the current trend of faster improvement in U.S. layoff activity may be fairly short lived.

10 Tips for ESL Presentation Coaching

For me, one of the most rewarding experiences as a trainer is to rehearse actual presentations and web meetings with participants.  For them, it is a huge confidence boost and helps them stay on message during the real thing.  For us, we gain valuable insight on the business, and are better able to provide targeted follow-up training.

This situation, however, requires trainers to change roles and expectations for the training event.  When setting up the training there are several keys to success.  First, try to have the training in the same environment as the real event.  If it is online, set up a web meeting.  If it is in a technical training room, reserve the training facility.  Second, try to get the presentation before the event to help you prepare.  For the most part the rehearsal will be participant led, but walking in with some warning of what you are about to see it helpful.  Third, make sure the participant brings a printed copy of the slides to the training.  Constantly changing between presentation view and edit view in PowerPoint disturbs the flow of the rehearsal.  It is better to make written notes on the slides for later reference.  This also allows the participant to review what we covered after the training.  Finally, try to enlist the help of a colleague to sit in and also give feedback and take notes.  This person will help refine the content of the presentation and can augment trainer feedback.

Once the training is arranged there are several tips for a successful coaching, here are ten.

1.  Audience Analysis

More than likely, the presenter has been so wrapped up in the details of the presentation that they have forgotten about the audience.  First, elict as much information about the audience as you can.  Who are the attendees?  What are their jobs?  What do they expect to get from the presentation?  Second, because most presentations are given to other non-native speakers, try to find out what level of English we are talking about.  Very often I see slides come back from the translators at a higher level.  We need to make sure the audience will understand what we are presenting.

2.  Modelling

It is helpful to give the participant a starting point by modelling the introduction or certain key parts of the presentation.  This could include key diagrams and graphics or particularly complex topics.  Remember to keep the model at the level of the participant.  So, if the presenter is B1 and the audience is assumed to be A2, keep the language appropriate.  Setting the bar too high is demotivating for the presenter.  We are hoping to avoid the phrase, "Oh wow!  You should give this presentation."

Modelling also provides the opportunity for the trainer to highlight discourse markers like "First..", "Next...", and "Let's take a look at..." as well as topic and slide transition phrases.  The model is only to get the ball rolling and should be as short as needed (typically 1-2 minutes is enough).

3.  The slides as an aid / hindrance

The slides can both help and hinder the presenter.  The presenter will naturally want to use the text from the slides as much as possible to help them find the words.  This causes several problems.  First, it normally distorts their body language and reduces the impact of their voice.  Second, if the attendees are not clear about the meaning of a bullet point, explaining it in the same terms will not help their understanding.  Finally, overusing the text often disturbs the flow of the explanation.  The presenter explains bullet point one... stops... reads... then explains bullet point two.  This makes it difficult for the listener to get the context of the slide and how all the parts fit together.

On the other hand, slides can provide a great reference for the presenter to organize their thoughts and signal where discourse markers should be placed.  I advise my learners not to have written notes or slide presentation notes because they already have most of the information on the slides.  Instead, we should look how we can use the text to aid the presentation.  I recommend placing some key words in bold, italics, or in different colors so that when they look at the screen they can quickly identify the main points before speaking.  Often, I will also have the learner turn away from the screen or close their eyes and simply talk about what they know on the subject.  This helps give the slide more flow and explains the text in different words.

4.  Timing

In most cases, the English presentation is copied or adapted from a presentation in L1.  The learners often fail to realize that presenting in L2 will take much longer.  Sometimes to fit the presentation into the allotted time slot, difficult choices must be made.  For example, if the most important information is at the end of the presentation, you might want to consider reorganizing the slides.  We don't want to be rushing to finish during our main point.  I find that the same number of slides and amount of content will take at least 50% more time than in L1 (depending on level).

This is also a time to remind them that going faster is not really the best answer.  Because the audience is also non-native speaker, they will need more time to to read the text, listen to the presenter, and understand the material.

5.  Audience Multitasking

Expanding on this, it helps to shows the presenter what the audience will be doing during the presentation.  In L1, it is possible for the audience to read, listen, and think about the material simultaneously.  In L2, this is a huge challenge.  Often, the presenter will change slides and dive right in talking about the material.  I typically tell the learner not to be afraid of silence.  Give the audience a moment to digest the material.  Don't ask them to read and listen at the same time... they will stop doing one or both.

6.  Two-way Communication

Many business presentations are inherently one-way communication, but in the L2 environment two-way communication is crucial for the presenter.  The audience will be very hesitant to interrupt them with questions and if they don't understand the material they might be too embarrassed to acknowledge it.  I encourage the learners to state at the beginning that if the audience doesn't understand something, let the presenter know.  The presenter will also often try to avoid two-way communication to minimize the demands in English.  They present a slide, transition, and start talking about the next.  Encourage the participant to stop, ask for questions, watch for non-verbal communication, ask for feedback, etc.

7.  Realistic Changes

Most of these training events occur shortly before the real presentation.  It would be great to be part of the drafting process, but that is not always practical.  So when making suggestions for changes we need to be realistic about how much time the learner has.  A rule of thumb is that for small edits, estimate 5 minutes per slide.  For text reorganization, 10-15 minutes per slide.  For larger reorganization and changes, 20-30 minutes per slide.  We don't want to make recommendations and then either stress the learner to make them (giving them less time to consider our feedback) or cause them to doubt the quality of the presentation.

8.  Content Gaps

One helpful thing during the rehearsal is to listen for topics they are not covering.  Have they assumed some kind of prior knowledge because they are an expert?  This is where having the colleague in the room can be very helpful.  When I am reading the presentation before the training, I am thinking of what questions the audience will have for the presenter.  Sometimes we find topics that the participant has simply forgotten to include in the presentation.

9.  Limited Language Input

This is not really the time for language input and correction.  Vocabulary retention is minimal in this context and improving accuracy should not be the aim of the training.  That said, any glaring cultural errors or errors which could cause significant misunderstandings should be corrected.  Occasionally, I will monitor for accuracy, but mostly only to drive future training.  In this scenario, we need to give the learner as much confidence as possible, pointing out verbs tenses doesn't help this effort.  I will, however, listen for words or phrases which are overly used, such as "overview" or "in this environment" and try to help the learner find other expressions.

10. Review and Summarize

Finally, save some time at the end of the training to review what you have covered, distill the feedback into general concepts, and make task lists prior to the presentation.  The coaching event is a stressful time for the learner and they have probably not had the chance to take everything in.  Also, they have been 'on stage' and have not had the opportunity to stop, take some notes, and really consider the feedback.  This review and summary stage helps them implement the advice they have received.

Of course, after the training event, check back with the learner to find out how everything went and congratulate them for a job well done.  The students will be thankful for your feedback and truly grateful for helping them make a great impression on their audience.

Kamis, 01 Maret 2012

A Break in the Trend for New Jobless Claims

A quick story in pictures, as we're still sorting things out:



Residual Distribution for Seasonally-Adjusted Initial Unemployment  Insurance Claims, 26 March 2011 - 18 February 2012 (End of Trend H, Part 1)

Officially, the previous trend, which we've identified as "H" in the chart above, began on 9 April 2011 and ran through 26 November 2011. Here's where we've described each trend in seasonally-adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims since 2005.



For those playing along at home in deciphering the notes on our statistical control chart-inspired analysis, here's a quick review of the Western Electric Rules via Wikipedia, which are the ones we follow in determining whether a trend for initial unemployment insurance claims is in effect or has broken down.



Residual Distribution for Seasonally-Adjusted Initial Unemployment  Insurance Claims, 26 March 2011 - 18 February 2012 (End of Trend H, Part 2

Yeah, breaks in the trend are sometimes easier to see after the fact! See our previous chart to understand why we didn't see it sooner! But hey, what does the new trend look like?



Residual Distribution for Seasonally-Adjusted Initial Unemployment <br />Insurance Claims, 26 March 2011 - 18 February 2012 (Trend I Begins)

The new trend officially began on 3 December 2011 and has continued through at least 18 February 2012. We suspect our previous prediction that the trend will flatten out in the weeks ahead will come true, given that we're closing in on the typical level of new jobless claims recorded before the recession began in December 2007, as the U.S. economy peaked at that time.



More soon, including our identification of exactly what caused the break in the previous trend in U.S. layoffs, in a follow up post....