Men, Women, Income and Recessions

We're revisiting the average and median incomes of men and women in the U.S. today because we've been using that data behind the scenes to prove out whether or not we could successfully determine these values for a combined population using only that data for the component sub-populations that make up the combined population, or vice versa.

As it happens, we could get pretty close to the actual values. The mean (average) income data was fairly easy to do, which we've shown below in our updated chart, where we've also indicated periods of recession (for the sake of not duplicating the chart we had previously posted and for providing additional context):

The trick here for calculating the average income of the combined population was to calculated the weighted average for the sub-populations - our results nearly matched the actual values recorded by the U.S. Census.

Working with the median income data however was a bit more difficult. Here, we took advantage of the fact that the distribution of income in the U.S. follows a log-normal pattern, which means that if you calculate the natural logarithm of income before graphing the distribution, the data will follow the normal, bell-curve shaped distribution that is pretty common in statistics.

Using the math that applies for log-normal distributions, we took the mean and median income data for the sub-populations and calculated their respective population means and standard deviations. We then took the weighted average of their population means, from which we calculated the median income for the combined population in each year, from which we got results that were really close to the actual values, paralleling them from 1947 through 2010.

When we say "really close", each of our calculated values were within about 2% of the actual values recorded by the U.S. Census in its Current Population Survey results. In the chart above, we multiplied our results by a scale factor of nearly 1.02 to shift our calculated values upward to more closely align with the actual values.

This isn't just an academic exercise. The real reason we've gone through this whole procedure is because we're going to be using the same math to extract information from the Census' annual income distribution data that has never really been examined before and we needed a test case to show that it works. And while we won't have the benefit of being able to check our results against actual data, you can reasonably expect that the trends we'll be presenting in that project will directly parallel the actual ones, and will very likely be within about 2% of them as well.

That's the beauty of the math!

Summer 2012 Snapshot of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings

Three months ago, we took a snapshot of the future investors expected for the S&P 500's earnings per share. At the time, we noted that investors had taken a dimmer view of the future for 2012, but were expecting better things in 2013.

Today, we can report that investors have taken a dimmer view of future stock market earnings across the board. Our chart below shows how much their future expectations have changed since 20 May 2012, as compared to earlier forecasts going back to the gloomiest days for the market in 2009:

The future just isn't as bright as it used to be just three short months ago....

Data Source

Silverblatt, Howard. S&P Indices Market Attribute Series. S&P 500 Monthly Performance Data. S&P 500 Earnings and Estimate Report. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Updated 9 August 2012. Accessed 13 August 2012.

Walking the Line.

I finally watched "Walk the Line" (the Johnny Cash story) a couple of weeks ago and it's been in my mind heavily since.  I know for a fact a couple of my friends are probably tired of hearing me talk about it!  Sorry, folks.  Just from an acting point of view, Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon owned it.  They completely owned those roles... learning how to play the instruments, singing their own songs to the point of mirroring The Man in Black and his wife nearly perfectly!  Wow!

Still... that's not what has stuck with me for two weeks.

Single people always talk about wanting to have that man or woman who has it all together.  All the time.  Yet, in real life, there seems to be an element of "rescuing" that happens with most couples that really make it. Cash was at his lowest point when June Carter finally agreed to marry him.  She'd already failed in two previous marriages and had children from both of them.  He had been successful, but was broke, drug-addicted and teetering on the edge of being forgotten.  She had grown up in a prominent family within country music but was now the outcast... the "whore" who couldn't make it work with good men.

They were both damaged goods in the eyes of many.  Maybe even in their own eyes?  But a funny thing happens when two people can both graduate to the point of realizing they need each other.  True partnership.  Thirty-five years marriage.  Old hurts forgotten.  Legacies forged.  It's a beautiful thing.

Also consider this...and I'll talk about it more another day... it's the original voices that we remember.  Unique voices are heard.  Copies are largely ignored.  Johnny Cash was an original.

The moral of the story today: don't be so afraid to need people.

Twenty Quick and Simple Household Life Hacks

Via Core77, Dylan (Household Hacker), shares his tips for how to deal with all those pesky little problems of everyday life in this two-part (so far) YouTube video series!

Part 1

What we learned how to do in Part 1:

1. Remove a screw with a stripped head.


2. Make a stylus for your smart phone.


3. Remove spray paint from your hands.


4. Unclog calcium buildup from your shower heads.


5. Out of window cleaner? Clean your windows with cola instead!


6. Better trash bag storage.


7. Open and reuse very recently sealed envelopes.


8. Make bug repellent from dryer sheets.


9. Clean and destink sink pads.


10. Easily clean your toilet bowl (plop plop fizz fizz)!

Part 2

What we learned how to do in Part 2:

1. Make a smaller battery work in space for larger battery.


2. Destink your sneakers.


3. Measure the amount of propane remaining inside a closed tank.


4. Easily open blister packaging.


5. Pack maximum clothes with minimum wrinkles.


6. Watch YouTube videos while doing other things on your computer.


7. Convert a lamp into an air freshener.


8. Keep writing after running out of ink.


9. Open a jar with a stuck lid.


10. Fill a pot that won't fit in your sink.

Men, Women, Income (Part 2)

We're continuing our series on men, women and income in the United States today, with our first stop being a look at the number of individual men and women counted as having income in the years from 1947 through 2010:

In this chart, we see that the number of men earning incomes in the U.S. has grown at a fairly steady rate since 1947. But what's remarkable is that the number of women earning incomes in the U.S. has grown much faster, at least for the thirty years from 1947 through 1977. And then, the number of women earning incomes surged by over 14.5 million to surpass the number of men in the next two years, before settling in afterward to grow at a near equivalent rate of growth as that for men in all the years since.

Our next chart features the inflation-adjusted median income for men, women and combined for the years from 1947 through 2010, which we've presented in terms of constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Since the U.S. Census has only published the median income data for all Americans earning income in the years from 1974 onwards, we used the Census' median income data for men and women separately for each year since 1947 to estimate what the the combined median income would be for the years before 1974. Our results are below:

As best as we can tell, the apparent sudden shift in employer hiring preferences for women after 1977, which we observe in both the number of women with incomes with respect to men and the growing median income of women in the years since, combined with the greater sensitivity of men's median income to periods of economic recession, likely accounts for the stalling out of real median income growth for men in the years from 1977 through 1996.

Since 1996, the trend in median income growth for both men and women have been more similar, although it still appears that men's median income is still much more sensitive to economic downturns.

Too Many Buried Talents?

One of my favorite passages of all time is the Parable of the Talents. Period. Point blank. It's incomparable in my mind because it contains so much wisdom to help us live our lives on purpose, with passion, productively and profitably! No doubt. I love it!

(Horrible image above, huh?  That guy even looks lazy!)

We were studying it in Bible Study last night and a few things jumped in my spirit that I wanted to share today. I'd blogged on this before, too, in a post called "Do You Even Matter?" but faith comes by hearing... not by once having heard!

As we were talking about it, I began to realize that I'd slipped into a pattern of burying my talents.  Check out Matthew 25:14-30 and let it speak to you.  I know for a fact that I'm the guy with five talents.  Forgive me if you perceive that as arrogance.  To me, it's truth.  I am not taking pride in that statement, however, because it's just as true that I've been too often acting like the steward with one talent.

No more.  Today is a new day!

How much talent do you have buried in the ground?  Time to dig them up and put them to work!  Are you hesitating because you don't think you have anything to work with?  False!  Everyone got something - even you.  Chances are you have more going for you than you realize.  Take an assessment today.  Look at what you have instead of focusing on what you lack and get to work!  Your true prosperity comes after giving the Master a return on the investment He's made into you!

Reaching for Gold in Life

                              



It's hard to watch the Games of the XXX Olympiad without wishing we were up on the podium, bowing to accept a medal, blowing kisses to the cheering crowd, basking in the admiration of the world.

I've been watching the games with my girls these past couple of weeks.  "I want to be in the Olympics," I hear them say.  They want the accolades, the grandeur, the followers on Facebook and Twitter.  "First," I remind them, "you have to get off the couch."

Most of us will never make it into the Olympic Games, but we are all contestants in an Olympic arena of sorts - that is, those of who realize we are in the game.  The game is Life itself, and its playing fields are many.

In the business arena, for example, as in sport, success begins with a dream. Qualification is much easier than in the Olympic realm.  You form a corporation, print some business cards, and you're in the competition.

From that point, it's all a question of aspiration.  How hard are you willing to work to achieve success?  What sacrifices are you willing to make?  How much are you willing to invest, both literally and figuratively? How early are you willing to get up in the morning? How many hours of training are you willing to put in every day? How many times are you willing to fail, and get up and try again? To what lengths are you willing to go?  How much practice, how much pain, how much postponement of immediate gratification are you willing to endure?

To achieve success at the Olympic Games - to win a gold, silver or bronze medal - requires tremendous talent and effort and sacrifice. Only three can stand on the podium.   But the winners' podium in Life is much larger than the one at the Olympic Games. To be sure, you can get on it.   In the world of business, you don't have to make it to the very pinnacle to get the gold or the silver or the bronze. There's plenty of gold and silver to go around in the upper part of the triangle.

But, first you have to get off the couch.  Then you can reach for the gold and silver that can be yours.